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[2017 China's export growth is expected to return to positive growth level]
Release date:[2017/7/3] Read a total of [565] time

By the impact of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the renminbi-denominated trade growth is significantly higher than the dollar-denominated growth rate. December 2016 in RMB-denominated export and import growth were 0.6%, 10.8%, continued to maintain positive growth.





Dollar-denominated export growth declined, but the real trade situation improved





Export growth as a whole showed a rebound trend, the renminbi-denominated exports for two consecutive months of growth, excluding the exchange rate fluctuations in the real export situation gradually improved. December 2016 export growth of -6.1%, although the decline than in November fell, but since the beginning of 2016 overall rebound trend, export lows in the first quarter of 2016, followed by quarterly recovery. As the yuan continued to depreciate against the dollar, the dollar-denominated export growth was significantly lower than the yuan-denominated growth rate. December 2016 yuan-denominated export growth of 0.6%, for two consecutive months of growth, since the beginning of the recovery trend was obvious, the annual export growth of -2%, up 4.6 percentage points over 2015. Some of the products in international trade use non-dollar settlement, the appreciation of the dollar led to this part of the trade converted into dollar prices shrinking, thus excluding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, the real export situation is gradually improved.





The export growth rate of the major export areas increased, the United States and some emerging market economies, the export situation is better. The overall improvement in the external environment, the Baltic Dry goods index rose in 2016 as a whole, in November 2016 once rose to 1200 points or more, but the recent decline.





Some of the labor-intensive products and crude oil exports grew rapidly. Labor-intensive products export differentiation, in December 2016 toy products export growth rate as high as 65.6%, double-digit high growth for four consecutive months. Textiles, bags, clothing, furniture, negative growth. Driven by the rebound in international crude oil prices, crude oil and refined oil exports are accelerating in December 2016, respectively, up 91.6% growth rate, 24.4%. It is noteworthy that high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products continued negative growth, export product structure to be optimized to enhance.





Multidimensional factors promote the continued growth of imports





December 2016 imports of 166.899 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.1%, for two consecutive months of growth. RMB-denominated import growth rate of 10.8%, for five consecutive months of growth, nearly two months growth rate of up to double digits. The trade surplus was $ 40.818 billion, down $ 3.4 billion from last month, as imports grew faster. Import growth is better, mainly price recovery, demand stabilization and other reasons.





Import prices rise to the growth rate of imports play a role in upgrading. The recent international commodity price index rose to more than 430 points, agricultural and food price index rally is more moderate, in late December 2016 food, oil, livestock price index were 343.55 points, 408.86 points, 452.2 points, metal, industrial raw materials The price index rose to 807.49 points, 493.67 points, the price of textiles is basically stable. December 2016 international crude oil prices rose, the recent OPEC basket of crude oil prices, WTI crude oil spot prices, Brent Dtd crude oil spot prices were 52.25 US dollars / barrel, 51.97 US dollars / barrel, 53.64 US dollars / barrel. With the gradual recovery in commodity prices, the import price index gradually picked up, especially the large import prices of primary products rose significantly.





2017 import and export growth is expected to positive growth





2017 export growth is expected to return to positive growth. The global economy is in a slow recovery process, the recent improvement in international trade market conditions, Asian peripheral countries export growth increased significantly. 2017 policy focus will shift from stable export growth to promotion of export structure, export industry from east to central and western regions gradient transfer, export product structure is also upgrading. In the past two years, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate from the beginning of 2015 to the end of 2016 depreciation rate of nearly 13%, the stimulation of export growth may be gradually reflected in 2017, the exchange rate depreciation also led to RMB-denominated exports Growth is significantly higher than the dollar-denominated export growth. The future of external demand environment uncertainty factors, the global trade protectionism tends to become increasingly serious, hidden trade protection barriers increased. Trump New Deal to increase trade sanctions, is expected to exchange rate and trade issues to China pressure, Sino-US trade friction increased the possibility of larger. And the export-related major prosperity index as a whole in the recovery trend. Foreign trade export pilot index rose to 37.4 points for three consecutive months, the new export orders index rose to 41.9 points, export container freight index rose to 806.26 points. Comprehensive judgments, positive factors show that export is expected in 2017 China's export growth is expected to rise to positive growth level, the end of two consecutive years of export growth negative growth situation.





2017 imports will remain at a low level positive growth level. Commodity prices have risen in nearly a year, and agricultural and food prices are relatively small, with metals, industrial raw material prices rising faster. The import price index from the beginning of 2016 86.9% gradually increased to 104%, the impact of price fluctuations on the impact of the basic effect of the import data, iron ore and its concentrate, soybean import prices have been positive, the future growth rate may be Slightly uplift. Stable operation of the economy, manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI continued to be in a better expansion range, the market demand to pick up signs of improvement, enterprises to make up the stock will improve, a large number of primary and intermediate products to maintain growth. 2017 to continue to promote production capacity, from the steel, coal industry to other industries to expand, will affect the import demand for related products. Comprehensive judgments, the import situation is relatively stable, is expected to maintain low growth rate.


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